After all of your emails, I get it. I am off the New England bandwagon.
I knew when I wrote last week that the Patriots were a can't-miss lock to cover against Miami, it was likely the kiss of death.
Trailing 24-20, the Patriots were in perfect position to pull off the comeback and cover. Quarterback Tom Brady had a first down at the Miami 14-yard line with 1:15 to go.
Normally that would be a lock for the Patriots, right?
Three incompletions later, on fourth down Tommy boy throws the ball toward receiver Austin Collie when safety Michael Thomas steps in and makes the interception.
Patriots players have killed my fantasy football teams all season, and they certainly didn't come through last week against the spread.
Now that I got that out of my system, no can't-miss locks this week, just picks, baby.
Miami at Buffalo (+2.5): Miami heads north to cold Buffalo — advantage Bills. Buffalo's strength is its defensive line and Miami's weakness is its offensive line, making this a low-scoring affair — advantage Bills. Nowak's pick: Bills 20-17.
New Orleans at Carolina (-3): Edge goes to the Panthers at home with their strong defense. Nowak's pick: Panthers 30-24.
Dallas at Washington (+2.5): According to Vegasinsider.com about 70 percent of the single-game betting in Vegas is going on the Redskins. I agree. It's December, Dallas needs a win and Tony Romo is the quarterback. It all adds up to a Cowboys loss. Nowak's pick: Redskins 27-24.
Tampa Bay at St. Louis (-5.5): The Rams are 3-1 ATS in their last four games at home. Nowak's pick: Rams 24-17.
Chicago at Philadelphia (-3): Simple math here. The Eagles are 4-2 ATS in their last six games and the Bears are 2-4 in their last six games. Nowak's pick: Eagles 38-30.
Cleveland at Jets (-2.5): Cleveland cornerback Joe Haden is nursing a hip pointer and the Browns' defense has been struggling. Nowak's pick: Jets 24-17.
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-6.5): The Kansas City defense is solid, the offense (Jamaal Charles) is clicking and the Chiefs are at home. Nowak's pick: Chiefs 30-20.
Minnesota at Cincinnati (-7): The Bengals are 6-0 ATS at home and need the win to secure a playoff spot. Nowak's pick: Bengals 31-21.
Denver at Houston (+10.5): The Broncos need a win to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs, and the hapless Texans will likely accommodate them. Nowak's pick: Broncos 35-20.
Tennesse at Jacksonville (+5.5): The Jags are actually doing well lately and are 3-1 both straight up and ATS in their last four. Nowak's pick: Jaguars 24-21.
Arizona at Seattle (-10.5): The spread seems a little high here. The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games, and the Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five game. Nowak's pick: Seahawks 27-20.
Giants at Detroit (-9.5): I would say 8 is a good over-under on combined turnovers in this game. Giants defense and turnovers on both sides keeps this close. Nowak's pick: Lions 27-21.
Oakland at San Diego (-10): The Raiders defense has been dismal, allowing 124 points in their last three games. Nowak's pick: Chargers 37-20.
Pittsburgh at Green Bay (off): Key here is the Steelers have struggled on the road with a 2-5 record. Nowak's pick: Packers 27-20.
New England at Baltimore (-2.5): Yes, I'm off the Patriots bandwagon. Nowak's pick: Ravens 27-20.
Atlanta at San Francisco (-12.5): It's the final Monday night game of the season and something tells me it's going to be wild and crazy. The 49ers win a close one. Nowak's pick: 49ers 30-27.
Contact Dan Nowak at email@example.com. Follow Dan on Twitter @NHRDanNowak.